Tesla and Polestar's September Performance Shows Mixed Results Amid Overall Downtrend in Australian EV Sales

Australia’s electric vehicle market continued to face challenges in September 2024, as detailed in the Electric Vehicle Council's (EVC) latest sales report.

According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) data, the national electric vehicle (EV) sales reached 3,561 units in September, marking a significant decrease of 59.62% compared to the same month in 2023. This downturn reflects broader market challenges affecting the uptake of EVs in the country.

The FCAI report shows that while EV sales decreased, they still contributed to an overall YTD total of 61,262 units, which, despite being lower than the previous year by 6.8%, suggests that EVs are gradually establishing their presence within the Australian automotive landscape.

Tesla Sees Steep Decline in September Despite Month-on-Month Improvement

‍Tesla, which remains the dominant EV player in Australia, sold 2,649 vehicles in September. While this represents an uptick from the August sales, the figure shows a dramatic 48.83% drop compared to the 5,177 units sold in the same month last year.

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Tesla’s performance has been mixed, with 30,750 units sold so far in 2024, which is down 19.08% compared to 2023's total of 38,000 units by this time.

By model, the Tesla Model Y has experienced a sharp decline, with September sales dropping 60.69% year-on-year to 1,498 units from 3,811 units in September 2023. Its YTD sales are also significantly lower, with 14,997 units sold in 2024 – a 36.07% decrease from the previous year's performance.

Conversely, the Tesla Model 3’s September sales dipped just 15.74% year-on-year to 1,151 units. Impressively, the Model 3 has managed to post an 8.32% increase in YTD sales, reaching 15,753 units in 2024 compared to 14,543 units in 2023.

Polestar’s Sales Surge in September Fails to Offset YTD Decline

‍Polestar, Tesla's Swedish rival in the Australian EV market, reported a strong September with 212 vehicles sold – an impressive 92.73% increase over the same month in 2023.

The Polestar 2, the brand's leading model, saw a substantial 68.18% rise in sales, with 185 units sold in September compared to 110 units a year earlier. Additionally, the Polestar 3 contributed 27 units to September's total, marking its introduction to the market.

However, Polestar's YoY decline is partly attributed to customers waiting for the upcoming Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models. The passenger car market, where the Polestar 2 currently sits, accounted for only 15.4% market share to the end of August.

Polestar expects that when the Polestar 3 and 4 enter the Australian market, they will significantly boost sales and help regain market share, attracting customers who have been awaiting these new models.

Despite the growth in September sales, Polestar’s overall performance in 2024 still trails behind 2023. The manufacturer has sold 1,330 units YTD, marking a 25.49% decline from the 1,785 units sold during the same period last year.

State-by-State Breakdown: Mixed Performance Across the Country

‍The EVC report provides a regional snapshot, revealing varied results across Australia. New South Wales (NSW) saw the most significant drop, with September registrations plummeting by 64.53%, while Victoria (VIC) faced a 33.60% decline.

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Northern Territory (NT), and Tasmania (TAS) also saw double-digit percentage declines in sales. In contrast, South Australia (SA) and Western Australia (WA) recorded positive growth, with sales increasing by 15.70% and 5.45%, respectively.

Conclusion: Australian EV Market Faces Challenging Environment

‍Despite a slight rebound from August's numbers, the overall EV market in Australia, represented by Tesla and Polestar, remains under pressure.

Total BEV sales in September were down 45.89% year-on-year, and the YTD decline stands at 19.37%, suggesting market challenges for electric vehicle adoption.

While Tesla faces a steep decline, particularly with the Model Y, Polestar has shown some resilience in monthly growth, though it still lags behind its 2023 performance on a YTD basis.

With the sector in flux, all eyes will be on how both manufacturers respond to the shifting dynamics in the Australian EV market in the coming months.