Rising petrol and diesel prices contributed almost one-fifth of Australia's annual inflation to September 2026, with new modelling examining how the result would differ if all household driving were electric.

The illustrative what-if analysis, commissioned by industry lobby group the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) and conducted by Endgame Analytics, puts inflation at 3.75 per cent rather than 4.34 per cent after allowing for charging costs.
It is not a measured reduction in inflation or a forecast of an overnight switch to EVs.

Automotive fuel prices rose 23.6 per cent over the year, contributing 0.77 percentage points to the annual inflation rate.
Electricity prices increased by 12.8 per cent over the same period.

“Petrol and diesel prices aren't just hurting motorists at the bowser.
They're adding to inflation across Australia,” said Electric Vehicle Council CEO Julie Delvecchio.

To calculate the alternative result, Endgame removed automotive fuel from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) consumer price index basket and replaced it with the electricity needed to cover the same driving distance.
It then rescaled the basket to 100 per cent and reapplied the year's price changes.

Removing fuel subtracted 0.77 percentage points, while charging added 0.08 percentage points and rescaling the remaining basket added another 0.10 percentage points.
The net difference was 0.59 percentage points.

Home charging is central to the calculation

The model assumes charging costs 80 per cent less than petrol, based on an EV owner doing 80 per cent of their charging at home on an eight-cent-per-kilowatt-hour EV tariff.
The remaining 20 per cent is public charging at 70 cents per kilowatt-hour.

That mix represents an average EV owner with access to home charging, rather than a driver relying entirely on public chargers.

“Our estimate compares the cost of petrol for household driving with the cost of the electricity needed to cover the same distance in an EV,” said Endgame Analytics Director Martin Chow.

Vehicle purchase prices and indirect effects, such as freight costs, are excluded from the calculation.

For a suburban family driving a small petrol SUV 15,000km annually, the analysis estimates rising fuel prices added $442 to the yearly fuel bill.
For an EV covering the same distance under the model's charging assumptions, higher electricity prices added $48.

The petrol calculation starts with an annual fuel bill of about $1870, using the September 2025 ABS average petrol price of $1.81 a litre.
The equivalent charging bill starts at about $374.

More than 500,000 battery-electric vehicles are now on Australian roads.
CarSauce's coverage of October new-car sales tracks EVs within the broader new-car market.

The EVC is calling for the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard to remain strong, retention of the fringe benefits tax exemption and more chargers.

However, the ABS keeps CPI weights fixed between updates, with the next update due in January 2027.
EV uptake therefore does not change the published CPI in the short term, even when individual households change what they spend on fuel and electricity.

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