The Federal Government has released the inaugural performance results for the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), providing the first empirical validation of the policy’s impact on the Australian automotive landscape.

The report, covering the "soft start" period from July 1 to December 31, 2025, reveals that while the industry as a collective entity achieved a net surplus of 15.9 million efficiency units, this aggregate figure masks significant disparities between manufacturers that have successfully banked credits and those facing substantial emissions liabilities.

According to the data released by the NVES Regulator, the credit market is heavily concentrated among a few key players.

BYD emerged as the dominant surplus holder, banking approximately 4.2 million efficiency units.

Toyota, defying earlier predictions of non-compliance, secured the second-highest surplus with nearly 2.9 million units, largely driven by the volume of its hybrid portfolio.

Tesla also performed strongly, accruing over 2.2 million units. Conversely, several legacy manufacturers finished the reporting period in deficit.

Mazda recorded the highest liability of any entity with over 508,000 deficit units, while Nissan accrued a liability of approximately 215,000 units.

While manufacturers are currently racking up "interim" debts, the actual bill isn't due immediately.

Under the NVES rules, brands have until 31 December 2027 to "extinguish" their 2025 debt by either earning new credits through cleaner car sales or buying surplus units from competitors.

If their balance remains above zero by February 2028, the Regulator will issue an official Final Emissions Value (FEV) and a corresponding infringement notice.

For every unit of debt remaining, manufacturers will be charged $50 AUD.

Using the government’s own example, a manufacturer with a 2,000-unit deficit would be hit with a $100,000 fine.

If this remains unpaid, the Regulator can take legal action where penalties can double to $100 per unit.

2025 NVES Performance

‍

.table_component {
overflow-x: auto;
width: 100%;
--webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;
}

.table_component table {
border: 1px solid #dededf;
width: 100%;
min-width: 800px;
table-layout: auto;
border-collapse: collapse;
border-spacing: 0;
text-align: left;
}

.table_component caption {
caption-side: top;
text-align: left;
}

.table_component th {
border: 1px solid #dededf;
background-color: #00a55d;
color: #ffffff;
padding: 10px;
white-space: nowrap;
}

.table_component td {
border: 1px solid #dededf;
padding: 10px;
}

.table_component tr:nth-child(even) td {
background-color: #f0f0f0;
color: #000000;
}

.table_component tr:nth-child(odd) td {
background-color: #ffffff;
color: #000000;
}

Manufacturer
Vehicles Sold
NVES Units (Net)
Status
Potential Penalty ($50/unit)




Alfa Romeo SpA
62
2,580
Deficit
$129,000


Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd/ JAC MOTORS
252
2,185
Surplus
-


Aston Martin Lagonda Limited
105
13,877
Deficit
$693,850


Audi AG
8,050
21,780
Surplus
-


Automobili Lamborghini S.P.A.
67
1,594
Surplus
-


B M W AUSTRALIA LTD.
15,445
340,081
Surplus
-


BENTHAM, VINCENT MARK
2
138
Deficit
$6,900


BYD AUTO CO. LTD
26,129
4,234,294
Surplus
-


BYD AUTO INDUSTRY COMPANY LIMITED
13,474
2,048,530
Surplus
-


Beiqi Foton Motor Co. Ltd.
497
2,941
Surplus
-


Bentley Motors Limited
81
1,875
Surplus
-


Chery Automobile Co., Ltd
30,829
438,633
Surplus
-


Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., Ltd.
383
65,540
Surplus
-


DONGFENG LIUZHOU MOTOR CO., LTD.
2
291
Surplus
-


Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft
1,653
33,448
Deficit
$1,672,400


FCA USA LLC
283
8,194
Deficit
$409,700


FORD MOTOR COMPANY OF AUSTRALIA PTY LTD
38,541
426,261
Surplus
-


Ferrari S.p.A.
108
15,785
Deficit
$789,250


Ford Motor Company
355
1,079
Surplus
-


Ford Werke GmbH
1,169
24,559
Surplus
-


GAC International Co., Ltd.
406
34,260
Surplus
-


GENERAL MOTORS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND PTY LTD
1,552
65,855
Deficit
$3,292,750


Great Wall Motor Company Limited
29,660
405,198
Surplus
-


Guangzhou Xiaopeng Motors Technology Co. Ltd
1,000
165,995
Surplus
-


Honda Motor Company Limited
9,022
26,069
Deficit
$1,303,450


Hyundai Motor Company
39,863
84,563
Deficit
$4,228,150


Isuzu Motors Limited
29,825
365,080
Surplus
-


JAGUAR LAND ROVER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD
3,355
16,666
Deficit
$833,300


JAGUAR LAND ROVER LIMITED
25
1,819
Deficit
$90,950


KG Mobility Corp.
1,969
22,344
Deficit
$1,117,200


Kia Motors Corporation
51,732
729,698
Surplus
-


MAHINDRA AUTOMOTIVE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD
2,757
32,938
Deficit
$1,646,900


MASERATI S.P.A.
96
4,496
Deficit
$224,800


MERCEDES-BENZ AUSTRALIA/PACIFIC PTY LTD
11,494
133,730
Surplus
-


MITSUBISHI MOTORS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
35,002
82,072
Surplus
-


Mazda Motor Corporation
38,465
508,517
Deficit
$25,425,850


McLaren Automotive Ltd
21
416
Surplus
-


NISSAN MOTOR CO. (AUSTRALIA) PTY. LTD.
13,877
215,261
Deficit
$10,763,050


Polestar Performance AB
1,639
281,410
Surplus
-


Renault s.a.s
903
16,310
Surplus
-


Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Limited
34
4,497
Deficit
$224,850


SAIC MAXUS Automotive Co., Ltd
5,519
21,129
Deficit
$1,056,450


SAIC Motor Corporation Limited
26,991
377,601
Surplus
-


SEAT, S.A.
823
67,733
Surplus
-


SKODA AUTO a.s.
2,914
86,888
Surplus
-


STELLANTIS (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) PTY LTD
336
50,466
Surplus
-


STELLANTIS EUROPE S.P.A
158
9,615
Surplus
-


Shandong Tangjun Ouling Automobile Manufacture Co., Ltd.
46
9,837
Surplus
-


Smart Automobile Co., Ltd.
2
303
Surplus
-


Stellantis Auto SAS
681
23,730
Surplus
-


Subaru Corporation
13,187
139,635
Deficit
$6,981,750


Suzuki Motor Corporation
5,042
64,204
Surplus
-


TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION AUSTRALIA LIMITED
115,504
2,890,625
Surplus
-


Tesla, Inc.
13,907
2,212,093
Surplus
-


Volkswagen AG
15,876
510,249
Surplus
-


Volvo Car Corporation
3,643
158,781
Surplus
-


Wuhan Lotus Cars Co., Ltd.
1
173
Surplus
-


Zheijiang Zeekr Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd
1,503
259,440
Surplus
-


Zhejiang Geely Automobile Co., Ltd.
4,630
620,233
Surplus
-

‍

These potential penalties are already being baked into the "sticker price" of new cars. Because manufacturers are businesses that must maintain margins, any expected emissions debt is being passed directly to the consumer.

We have already seen this play out with the Y62 Nissan Patrol - which recently copped a $5,000 price hike - with Nissan Australia explicitly citing the introduction of the NVES as a factor behind the increase.

The urgency of this challenge is compounded by the aggressive tightening of emissions targets over the coming years.

The current 2025 headline target for passenger vehicles of 141 grams of CO2 per kilometre is a relatively high baseline.

This target will drop to 117g/km in 2026, before plunging to 58g/km by 2029.

Similarly, the target for Light Commercial Vehicles will tighten from 210g/km today to 110g/km in 2029.

This trajectory creates a compounding problem for brands currently in deficit; they must not only clear their 2025 debt but also meet increasingly stringent targets that will rapidly erode the value of conventional hybrids and non-plug-in technologies.

Market data suggests consumers are already responding to these regulatory shifts.

Despite the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) characterising demand for electric vehicles as "subdued", VFACTS data for January 2026 indicates a significant pivot toward utility-focused low-emission vehicles.

Sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) surged by 170.5 per cent year-on-year, driven in large part by the launch of the BYD Shark 6, which recorded 1,108 sales in January alone.

The road to 2029 is set to be a transformative - and potentially expensive - period for the Australian automotive industry.

As targets tighten and credits become the new market currency, the era of the "unregulated" gas-guzzler is officially over.

For manufacturers, the choice is now a matter of survival: pivot rapidly to low-emission technology or prepare to pass even larger compliance costs onto their customers.

For Aussie drivers, the shift is already visible on the showroom floor. Whether it's through a "compliance tax" on traditional V8s or a broader range of high-tech hybrids, the price of staying behind the curve is becoming too much for manufacturers to ignore.